Tornadoes in the main outbreak region from May 17 through 30. In the core high-risk area, SPC called for up to 45% odds that any of these significant events could occur within a 25-mile radius of any point: an EF2 tornado, hail of at least 2, or wind gusts to at least 74 mph. A tornado outbreak occurred during the afternoon and evening hours of the May 20, 2013, and was the last day of a three-day stretch of significant severe weather from May 18-20, 2013. Frustrating as it must've been for him, I made sure he came with that same book every week thereafter. clip. Particularly photogenic, cyclic tornadic supercell (up to EF3). At the time of this writing, we are planning to head out next week to chase with fellow H&H chasers Travis and John. NOAAs Storm Prediction Center(SPC)tweeted that morning: Parts of Arkansas, Missouri, andOklahoma were under tornado warnings and flooding threats early Tuesday morning as I write this article. There are five levels of severe weather risk issued by the SPC, the details of which can be seen below. There was considerable haze and smoke in the air, some of it apparently related to smoke from wildfires in southern Mexico. @NWSAmarillo #phwx pic.twitter.com/PfVTZ335Hr. If youre wondering how did this sounding do that?, remember to check for boundaries, cell mergers, and chaos! Particularly photogenic EF2 tornado, one of multiple (mostly EFU) produced by a few supercells. Early indications suggested that an area of stability (a cap) may have somewhat suppressed the potential powder keg. Possible explanation here in the 21z and 00z weather balloon launch from Norman and you can see substantial warming around 675 hpa. May 20, 2019. We watched on our computer as the tour vans intercepted a vicious hailstorm in Montana that blew out all the windows in their caravan and left the passengers with large bruises. All were part of the 2020 Easter Sunday tornado outbreak. Particularly photogenic EF4 tornado from a cyclic supercell that produced 9 tornadoes across SW OK. Also known as quakenado due to the magnitude 4.7 earthquake which occurred on the same day. View What is a Watch? Photogenic EF2 tornado from a cyclic supercell that produced tornadoes up to EF3. One-hundred and five of 2019's . Massive and particularly photogenic mothership supercell. Part of the 2011 Super Outbreak. Two days prior on May 18th, the SPC issued a relatively rare Day three moderate risk, and re-upped the moderate risk the following day. Long-tracked EF3 tornado, part of North Carolinas largest tornado outbreak on record. I have ideas from deep professional/scientific experience. Particularly photogenic mothership supercell that produced a couple of tornadoes. It was at this point we realized that most had made the choice to go north then east and were now behind the storm which had begun to deviate to the right. Supercell that produced a large wedge EF3 tornado before acquiring a particularly photogenic mothership structure. EF2 tornado, part of a local tornado outbreak around the DFW metro. Understandably, those in the region unaffected by the severe weather breathed a collective sigh of relief. Part of an outbreak of tornadoes across the central Plains. We grabbed some breakfast at Sonic and watched out the window as the high clouds in the wake of the storms to the north began to burn off. I call this worst-case scenario bias. By the way, a few weeks ago my family had to rush to the basement because of a Doppler radar-indicated tornado. There was such a heightened sense of alert about the storms on Monday. Particularly photogenic EF3 tornado that killed two teens driving. Nearly ten years later I convinced my dad to take me storm chasing with a tour group called Silver Lining Tours after seeing a TV show about the tour leader, Roger Hill. Monday will offer plenty of material for review. The professionals are in a very tough position, having to carefully evaluate and balance two ends of a spectrum: miss a critical forecast for widespread, severe storms and many lives could be unnecessarily lost, vs. over-forecast an event and face criticism and potential loss of credibility for the next go-round. I will write about these on occasion, and am most proud of my John Park Finley and Theodore Fujita collections. My dad was initially skeptical, but we signed up and were ready to take the plunge. 23:48 - April is May and May is April 25:16 - Warmer Gulf Early Means More Severe 26:16 - More seasonal variability 29:06 - Boom or Bust Seasons? Alas, we couldnt see a thing through a haze so dense that visibility was seemingly reduced to a hundred yards. Tornadoes were on the ground in North Dallas, Richardson, Garland, and Rowlett. Meteorologists seemed awestruck at the tornado outbreaks potential, using terms such as nightmare scenario and a rare kind of event that may take many lives. And a horde of storm chasers converged on Oklahoma, with some hoping the day would bring the chase of a lifetime. Particularly photogenic tornado, the first of multiple (up to EF3) from a cyclic supercell. Neither RAP nor ERA5 will not perfectly represent the observed environment. Long-lived EF3 tornado that killed 3 people. 15:35 - Stronger cap = R.I.P. Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own. We weren't that far off.. I was excited. MOORE, Okla. - Six years ago, a devastating EF-5 tornado hit Moore, killing more than 20 people, including children. Supercell that produced hail as large as 5 inches. www awardselect com award select. EF3 tornado that was largely unanticipated. Last time it was issued was on 07 May 2015. EF3 tornado, part of a large-scale tornado outbreak. It is this that leads me to continue to head out to the plains each year in hopes that I'll get to take in Mother Nature's most explosive scenery. Long-tracked, EF3 wedge tornado, part of the largest tornado event in AZ on record. Not long after, the western storm was undercut by outflow from storms to its west too the chase was over at 6:30 pm on a high risk day. Particularly photogenic tornadoes, part of a cold core tornado outbreak across eastern CO and western KS. If any info here is re-used please cite author (Cameron Nixon) and web page (https://www.ustornadoes.com/case-archive/). After what seemed like an eternity, we started to see something emerge and come towards us a large, strong to violent multiple-vortex, white stovepipe tornado and it was close. EF5 tornado from a particularly photogenic supercell for the area that killed 3 people. Photogenic and tornadic mothership supercell. Photogenic and dusty tornado that weaved through a field of wind turbines. In parts of . It had the feel. Trees groan under the weight of snowfall in Boulder, Colorado, on Tuesday morning, May 21, 2019. Pair of particularly photogenic LP mothership supercells. Parts of Arkansas, Missouri, andOklahoma were under tornado warnings and flooding threats early Tuesday morning as I write this article. This event should result in a significant threat to life and property. Long-tracked EF4 tornado, part of a prolific QLCS that produced multiple intense tornadoes simultaneously. ERA5 soundings are occasionally marked by an incongruent disconnect in the low-level thermodynamic profile. Having said all of that, the reality is that false alarms are a challenge in weather messaging (or are they?) They reported that roughly 75% of tornado warnings in the U.S. are false alarms. A series of two almost mirror-image photogenic mothership supercells, both of which produced tornadoes. Indeed, as I was monitoring weather maps across the threat area, these factors did appear to materialize. Thats why a single HRRR forecast, especially one in which a forecast is largely composed of something such as simulated radar (which is not a good way to forecast anyway), should be taken with several grains of salt. Long-lived, dusty, and nearly stationary EF2 tornado. Particularly photogenic tornadoes from a rather atypical cold core-like setup for the area. It never fails to perplex, confound and humble us, even when we think we have the smallest shred of understanding. Particularly photogenic EF3 tornado with well-documented and mesmerizing sub-vortex dynamics. Oklahoma record hailstone, measuring 6 inches. Particularly photogenic orange carrot tornado. Part of an outbreak of particularly photogenic nocturnal tornadoes, unprecedented for the time of year for the area. Texas State record hailstone measured at 6.4 diameter, produced by a particularly massive supercell storm. That meant we needed to go to The Big Texan in Amarillo, which seemed like a good place to post up for the evening. Photogenic supercell that produced a few tornadoes. Particularly photogenic tornado from LP supercell. Slow-moving EF4 wedge tornado lasting over 90 minutes, often referred to as Bennington II. With relative ease considering the number of chasers we expected to see, we made it back out onto the main road. Another strong wave will emerge from the low on Thursday, and a moist tropical air mass is in place to resurge northward, so our next major ramp-up in severe weather is likely to take shape from Texas to Kansas. A series of particularly photogenic tornadoes, some well-documented at a close range, part of a local outbreak of tornadoes up to EF3. Part of a High Risk event regarded by some as a bust due to a lack of intense tornadoes across Oklahoma. A new study entitled Cry wolf effect? Long-lived EF4 tornado, part of an outbreak of tornadoes across IN and OH. Particularly photogenic supercell that produced an anticyclonic tornado amongst others. 18:25 - Future Jet Stream Strength 20:31 - Future Storm Ingredients 21:58 - Valentine's Day Storm Season? OR Well-defined debris signature w/ strong couplet representative of significant tornado. Infamous first EF5 tornado that killed 11 people and destroyed 95% of the town. But when it ultimately comes down to it, theres nothing that hypes up storm chasers like when a high-end convective outlook is issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). For a time, it did seem like a slam dunk. Remember me Not recommended on shared computers. We decided on the latter, as the storm wasnt looking imminently tornadic and we felt that this strategy would give us the best opportunity to stay ahead of the storm should a strong mesocyclone develop and cause the storm to deviate to the right. Part of an outbreak of tornadoes across the central Plains. Multiple particularly photogenic tornadoes (rated up to EF2) from the same supercell. Slow-moving, nearly stationary at times, EF3 (but likely stronger) wedge tornado regarded with particular fondness by many storm chasers, due to its lasting over an hour with no physical harm done to civilization; also known as Bennington I. They had only issued a watch like this once before, and it came on the day of the April 27th, 2011 super outbreak in Dixie Alley the largest tornado outbreak in history. I personally don like the knee jerk bust declarations as a real-time event is unfolding. (Katie Wheatley) Volleys of tornadoes touched down for 14 straight days beginning May 17, 2019. A local outbreak of well-documented and significant tornadoes. Certain artifacts are inevitable. This was the highest probability watch Id ever been in, let alone chased. Two of 10 tornadoes produced by a cyclic supercell, part of an event with an eastern extent and intensity that was largely a surprise.. Further complicating things, each time wed stop the RFD would blast us with strong wind and heavy rain. Particularly photogenic UFO-like supercell. Often regarded as the gold standard for recent dust storms for the west Texas area. Most surprisingly, there were almost no supercell storms in the prime part of the warm sector across southwest Oklahoma, south of a warm front and well east of the cold front/dryline, where the air was most unstable and wind shear was amply supportive of high-end twisters. Earlier this week the Great Plains experienced severe weather. Just the fourth time in history a 45% probability had been issued and the wording in the discussion was terrifying. Long-lived and photogenic supercell that tracked across central MT. SPC noted that This is only the second watch in SPC history where every category of watch probabilities (torn, wind, hail) are at greater than 95%. There was virtual certainty that these things were going to happen, and they actually did. Other tornadoes struck northwest Texas, and a mammoth 5.5-diameter hailstoneone of the states largest on recordfell near the town of Wellington in the eastern Texas Panhandle. Canadas only (particularly photogenic) EF5 tornado. The cold upper low in the western U.S. thats been helping to trigger this weeks severe weatheras well as a few surprisingly intense late-May snows over parts of the West and Upper Midwestwill twirl in place while slowly weakening this week. The tornado had already been on the ground for almost an hour, and was entering the final part of its 26 mile track. Moreover, this resulted in a daily average of 19.8 . We were confused, as we didnt have a visual of a ground circulation even given our ability to see the rapidly rotating wall cloud just to our west. EF3EF4-equivalent tornado that killed 6 people, highly unusual for the area. That was [what] I was imagining when I walked in the door yesterday. While tornadoes and other forms of severe weather did materialize in the threat area, the highly anticipated violence of extremely intense, widespread tornadoes did not. Part of an outbreak of tornadoes across the central Plains. Long-tracked EF-4 tornado, part of an outbreak of tornadoes across IL and the Ohio Valley. Particularly cyclic supercell that produced over 20 tornadoes up to EF3 in strength, including two at once at times. Outflow storm modes dominate. This article was published more than3 years ago. Ironically, caps can be key ingredients in explosive storm development too. We finally got back on the storm in between East Duke and Mangum, Oklahoma. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. March 11, 2019, 9:20 PM Tornado wreaks havoc in northern Michigan community. From a messaging standpoint, many people already feel that weather is hyped. My Forbes colleague Dennis Mersereaus tweet is spot on: Today, and I cannot stress this enough, is why you dont hype the weather. Day 4 of our 2019 chasecation. 13:48 - Tornado Season is Expanding? There was the unusual strength of the upper-level weather system, including jet stream winds. Soundings were not adjusted for observed surface variables or storm motions. EF3 tornado from a cyclic and high-precipitation supercell that produced 8 tornadoes across southeast NE during a Mothers Day tornado event. may 20, 2019 tornado bust. The first week, the boy I was paired with came to me with a book about tornadoes. Long-tracked EF4 tornado that killed 8 people, the strongest February tornado on record in Oklahoma. We turned on the radio to listen to local reports that were coming through. Pair of particularly photogenic tornadoes. PDS Tornado Watch # 199 is coming for Oklahoma. RAP soundings will often display saturation aloft that masks otherwise drier profiles near convection. Surprisingly, the researchers found that concerns about false alarms generating a complacent public may be somewhat exaggerated. It was time for a tire change (safety first, and tires are a priority), so we took care of that in the morning before we departed on the chase. Could be a little placebo effect, but I choose to believe its not. For educational use. Evaluating the impact of false alarms on public responses to tornado alerts in the Southeastern United States was just published in the journal, Weather, Climate and Society. Much to their dismay, my enthusiasm was unwavering; I needed to experience Mother Nature at her fiercest. The event highly resembled, at least in HRRR model space, high-impact Dixie Alley events where strong to violent tornadoes are more common than anywhere else in the world. The timing of bust declarations. Excerpt from the May 20th, 2019 SPC 1630z day one outlook My parents, terrified, approached me to ask me what I thought of the video. Mobile radars had winds well within the violent category (I know, I know). In addition, the May 2019 tornado production was persistent, as 28 of the 31 days in May had at least one tornado reported. After a few minutes, a strong burst of cold air hit us outflow from the new western storm. Dedicated meteorologists like those in the picture below recognized that level of alert for this event was warranted. Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Particularly photogenic surprise morning mothership supercell. Family of photogenic tornadoes, with twins at times. As we had seen a few great tornadoes a couple days earlier on May 17th, we needed to celebrate with a storm chasing tradition: a steak dinner. A tornado was spotted just outside of Tangipahoa, Louisiana, Wednesday evening, according to the National Weather Service New Orleans. Robust supercells, such as the one shown below, began developing across the Texas panhandle. Stay weather aware this weekend and be prepared for severe weather on Monday if you live in the southern Plains pic.twitter.com/KoDrtPD1zN. If you were following the majority of meteorological messages leading up to Monday, dire warnings about an epic tornado outbreak were being conveyed. Ironically, caps can be key ingredients in explosive storm development too. Its official EF3 rating is widely held as highly controversial. High-precipitation, cyclic supercell that produced multiple weak tornadoes. EF5 tornado, one of the U.S.s deadliest on record due especially to a particularly rapid evolution, killing 158 people. EF3 wedge tornado, particularly long-tracked, wide, and at an early time of day for the area. One of the longest-lived tornadoes on record, lasting 2.5 to 3 hours, rated EF2 (though likely stronger), a wedge tornado from a high-precipitation supercell. One of the most reflective of the meteorologists weighing in on Tuesday was Roger Edwards, a longtime SPC forecaster who was on duty early Monday. SPC warning coordination meteorologist Patrick Marsh also pondered the day's perplexities on Twitter. EF3 tornado, highly-visible for the area and time of occurrence. Wedge tornado produced by high-precipitation supercell, with recorded winds up to 212 mph, though rated an EF2. Oklahoma City, OKNorman, OKLawton, OKEdmond, OKMidwest City, OK Tulsa, OKWichita Falls, TXBroken Arrow, OKEnid, OKMuskogee, OK Lubbock, TXAbilene, TXFort Smith, ARFayetteville, ARSpringdale, AR Dallas, TXFort Worth, TXBoston, MAArlington, TXWichita, KS New York, NYPhiladelphia, PABaltimore, MDWashington, DCKansas City, MO Oklahoma City, OKTulsa, OKLubbock, TXAmarillo, TXAbilene, TX Oklahoma City, OKNorman, OKEdmond, OKMidwest City, OKMoore, OK Lawton, OKStillwater, OKShawnee, OKDuncan, OKAda, OK Dallas, TXFort Worth, TXArlington, TXPlano, TXGarland, TX Colorado Springs, COWichita, KSWorcester, MASpringfield, MASpringfield, MO Oklahoma City, OKTulsa, OKAbilene, TXNorman, OKWichita Falls, TX Lubbock, TXAmarillo, TXMidland, TXOdessa, TXSan Angelo, TX Fort Worth, TXBoston, MAWichita, KSProvidence, RIWorcester, MA New York, NYPhiladelphia, PADallas, TXBaltimore, MDWashington, DC Oklahoma City, OKTulsa, OKNorman, OKWichita Falls, TXLawton, OK Lubbock, TXAmarillo, TXAbilene, TXMidland, TXOdessa, TX Dallas, TXFort Worth, TXArlington, TXWichita, KSPlano, TX New York, NYPhiladelphia, PABaltimore, MDBoston, MAWashington, DC Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table, May 20, 2019 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook. It followed an EF4 tornado from the same supercell, and was followed from behind by an even longer-tracked EF3 tornado ongoing simultaneously from a different supercell. Some of the images of chaser traffic behind us are mind blowing. pic.twitter.com/JQLisTVZZs. Now a quick scientific opinion: to me, every weather forecast should be formulated and communicated probabilistically using multiple models and model runs (re: ensemble models) in order to best understand the full spectrum of possible outcomes that a particular event might span.