It will cycle through. There isnt anything I can do to change it or to make it better by voting.. Mike DeWine is running for reelection and facing candidates Joe Blystone, Jim Renacci, and Ron Hood in the primary. Our model also links this decline to increases in polarization. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. We dont want it, she said. The way he spoke to President Trump bothers me even more, because hes speaking to my president. Bellwether counties went overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 How could the 'bellwether counties' get it so wrong? Fitch, who grew up in foster homes and went on to put himself through college, has owned and run the Summit Fireside Lodge and Grill for 32 years. Because the man made a lot of promises in 2016, and I think that he stood up and he kept every one of those promises that he could possibly keep, said Ron Fannin, 69, the local courthouse supervisor. At 6:30 pm we kick off an evening that showcases and celebrates Ukrainian arts and culture. She said she almost never votes, but this year decided to vote for President Donald Trump. Please read our comments policy before commenting. Longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat who has been in Congress since 1983, is running for reelection; Teresa Gavarone and J.R. Majewski are competing in the GOP primary. Richard Zulch, an Army veteran who served in Vietnam as a combat engineer from 1969 through 1971 and is the quartermaster for Veterans of Foreign Wars Post 4811 in Bowling Green, said he has been able to see the political landscape from both sides of the fence. Jeff Myers, a lifelong Vigo County resident in Riley, on the other hand, wont let the big events of the day, such as riots and the pandemic, determine his vote. Vigo County voters supported Trump by a 15 percent margin in 2016. Most of the jobs up here are part-time or seasonal. Hes concerned a Biden administration would mean an end to fracking, higher gas prices, and utility bill hikes. He has since assessed each candidate on their moral stances, he said, rather than by party affiliation. TRENDING: Meet Samuel Armes - Groomed by the CIA and FBI and Author of the Original "1776 Returns" FED-SURRECTION Document - That He . Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a 3 point margin. "The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. Weve always had a mix of voters, Baumgardner added. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in Texas (San Antonio) has had only one miss since 1928 (preferring the Democrat Hubert Humphrey in 1968). We find that bellwether success is almost entirely a matter of random coin tosses in multiple counties over time to create an appearance of predictive power that is a matter of chance. He won Ohio by eight, Iowa by eight. Rural white America is principally Trump, and they are ripe for conspiracy theories. Being poor, I do believe that we need a stable safety net for people. And yet, the belief in bellwether states or counties as predictors of US presidential elections is a phoenix that is constantly being reborn. Of the 19 bellwether counties that have consistently voted for the presidential winner since 1980, all but one chose Trump, the Journal found, PJ Media reported. The issues most important to Fannin include the economy, border security, and the virus. Ive got opinions, but I just dont voice them, I keep to myself, he said, adding that its better for business. Taking the pulse in Vigo County, Indiana, which has voted for the presidential winner in all but two elections over the past century, Cara is an Orange County, New York-based Epoch Times reporter. About The Author. We have become so divided. Your email address will not be published. A small-business owner, who didnt want to be identified, said hes voting for Biden. When he became a Christian, he struggled with his unions blind support for Democratic candidates, most of whom arent pro-life, he said. Shepherds family, on the other hand, wasnt much interested in politics. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. Shortages are all over the place, Miller said. This claim is basically absurd. Vigo County's most recent winning streak ended this year, as it did for nearly all the country's reliable bellwethers, most of them blue-collar, overwhelmingly white communities in the Rust Belt. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. The median household annual income is approximately $20,000 less in the county than it is nationally. Titchner, a Vietnam veteran, has been painting houses for 45 years and said he votes based on the candidate, rather than the party. Just like a hurricane, you can try to prepare for it the best you can, but you never know what kind of damage it is going to cause. And its never going to come back.. Thats part of what has made it an effective bellwether, at least in recent decades, he said. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain. He said he finds it hard to believe Bidens claim that he never talked to his son Hunter Biden about his deals in Ukraine and China. In 2020 the expansion also began generating $898,000 a year for the next 15 years for Lake Local Schools. "If. Hes feeding people, instead of beating them up, to get stuff accomplished. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. In an October 7, 2020, essay in the New York Times, David Wasserman looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties for evidence that Donald Trump is in serious trouble. Miller doesnt hesitate to say that he isnt happy with the current state of affairs and he doesnt know who hell vote for in the next presidential election. Westmoreland is the only one in the South; Clallam is the only county on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. Hamilton sees value in both parties, he said, but he considers himself Democratic-leaning. The indirect evidence for election fraud rests on various statistical claims about the high level of improbability of certain features of the 2020 election. Its crazy. He says hes going to vote for the lesser of two evils.. For Brendon, another resident of Riley who declined to disclose his last name, his spiritual belief will lead him not to vote at all this year. On Sept. 14, a federal judge ruled Wolfs shutdown and restrictions on businesses unconstitutional, but the governor has since appealed. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and University of New Hampshire. Hamilton had already cast his vote for Biden on the first day of early voting. He worked in HVAC repair with the local pipefitters union and also owns a small concession business, setting up at events. To find out more about cookies and change your preferences, visit our, looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties, The Russia-Ukraine War: a challenge to international order, Global Energy Politics and Cost of Living Crisis, The New Normal: a dual track approach to health strategy and policy, Inside the Deal: how the EU got Brexit done. On . Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and the University of New Hampshire. He is his own worst enemy.. However, the political viewpoints of its residents are mixed as they have become more wary and leery of the government. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times). Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 33 percent nationally. I think all politicians are crooks. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. But not only are bellwethers not really predictors of future success, the likelihood of finding long streaks of prior predictive success has gone down. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. It hurts the older people like me who are on a fixed income.. Youre not getting anybody perfect. We believe that there are two main reasons. Rob Portmans seat, Coppeler said. Our politicians need to look on both sides of the fence and work together. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000; Trump won 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. Now the places emerging as possible new bellwethers have more racially diverse populations. He says Democratic Gov. A former Republican stronghold, Wood County supported GOP candidates Gerald Ford in 1976, and Donald Trump in 2020. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high scoring counties, they said. Sam, who is a truck driver for Four City Technologies in Wellington but lives in Marblehead, said he drives about 400 miles a day to deliver bolts, nuts, and screws used in the auto industry. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Half the people are just wearing rags on top of their face. In a video posted to Twitter on Thursday, Trump 2020 Campaign Senior Advisor for Strategy Steve Cortes took a deep dive into the 2020 election data regarding President Donald Trump's overwhelmingly dominant performance in the United States' bellwether counties, adding to the statistical improbability of a Joe Biden electoral victory. He likes how the Democratic Party helps lower-income people. Election Results 2014: The Bellwethers - The New York Times Its the rural American, pro-life, pro-Second Amendment county that gave the edge to Barack Obama in 2008. Epoch Times: "Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020" He considers Trump pro-life. I dont think he has done that bad of a job. To accept cookies, click continue. For Tisdell, the two major issues that weigh on his mind this year are the riots and the pandemic. I find that hard to believe. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck-to-neck. Republican registrations have increased from 8,467 on Nov. 9, 2016, to 9,960 as of Sept. 17 this year. We are a rural county here, Hill told The Epoch Times. If I look back on my life, there is a swing toward the right, and then it swings back toward the left. I would never vote any other way. Im not happy with the way things are now. Hes concerned about big government, burdensome regulations, and encroachments on the Constitution. Results from 28 counties have still not been finalized, per Brookings Institution. Fifteen percent is a very large gap to close, he said. . If this thing continues, were going to be paying $6 a gallon for gas, he said. People are so worked up about it all the time, stressed out. Second, when we examine a short string of elections, we do indeed, find that some counties go with the winner in all (or virtually all the elections). Elk Countys approximately 15,000 residents that go to the polls have voted for the eventual winner in all but three presidential elections since 1932in 1940, 1968, and 2012. The price of gas at the Marathon gas station in Port Clinton was $3.39 a gallon on Feb. 22 whenDave Beggs, anarmy veteran and retired City of Port Clinton heavy equipment operator, pulled in. Your email address will not be published. Im not even sure what direction were going.. A number of fertilizer plants closed across the country last year due to natural gas shortages. Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Tulsi Gabbard Says Election Fraud a 'Serious Threat,' Announces Bill Targeting Ballot Harvesting. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. Bernard Grofman is Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Jack W. Peltason Chair of Democracy Studies at the University of California, Irvine. She said her husband will vote for Trump, too. It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. It bisects six counties Hillsborough, Polk, Osceola, Orange, Seminole and Volusia but is far bigger than the . Required fields are marked *. Part of his route is driving up to Detroit and Flint, Michigan, every day. A recent history of presidential election bellwether counties - Ballotpedia I know a lot of people dont like him, because of his tweets and things that he says, and I kind of agree with that. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. A state is considered a "bellwether state" if it usually . Bergbower suspects Trump will win in the county by a smaller margin this year, but will win nonetheless. You expect the price of things to go up, thats inflation for you, Tammy said. March 3, 2023 Updated: March 3, 2023. For example, if we call a county a bellwether if it has one less correct match than the number of elections in a sequence, we will get nearly 19 bellwethers even in a set of eleven elections, and in a set of seven elections, we will see 197 bellwethers far more than the 27 we would find under our assumptions when we require a bellwether to have an unblemished record of predictive success. No evidence for systematic voter fraud: A guide to statistical claims Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic, while Westmoreland County in Virginia is almost one-third black. Getting fertilizer can be a challenge.. Miller is often faced with tough decisions in his business. I just want Trump in. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the 19 counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. Donald Trump Won Record 16 Bellwether Counties - Swarajyamag Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. You have to take the lesser of two evils. But you cant winem all, Beggs, 80, told The Epoch Times. At least Biden is honest, he said. Not as large or as well-known as its more eastern cousin, Luzerne County, where much of the election attention has been focused, Elk County is just as accurate in predicting who will be the next commander in chief. This is a high farming community.. The sentiments of those arriving at or leaving the Kroger grocery down the street in Port Clinton echoed those at the gas station. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. Missouri fits this definition, as do six counties that have matched the national vote. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. These counties also disproportionately came from the Midwest and the Northeast. As Figure 1 shows, with roughly 3600 counties, the number of counties which correctly predict the elections outcome can be non-trivial even for relatively long sequence of elections when the probability of a correct prediction is exactly 50 percent, i.e., a coin flip. Two states have announced recounts. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. The voter shift is happening statewide, and despite Democrats having 750,000 more registered voters, Republicans have gained 75,000 since 2016, while Democrats have lost 91,000. Their fear is real, mine is. Im looking at both sides of it. But Myers doesnt think Biden is respectful to Trump either. When gas went up that time, our sales went down to zero, Zulch said. Chamberlin, who has worked for the regional chain for 17 years, estimates he has saved about $2,000 in gas over the past year. The City Center festival continued with Kyiv City Ballet, a Christopher Wheeldon duet and a daring work for Dayton Contemporary Dance Company. Charlotte Cuthbertson is a senior reporter with The Epoch Times who primarily covers border security and the opioid crisis. bellwether counties epoch timesjury duty summons date vs reporting date Get Business Credit and Financing To Grow Your Business!!! Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election I kind of keep in my bubble. Logistics are a nightmare, Miller said. Because of the current situation, I have to look at our finances and say, Can I get this new truck, can I hire these two to three new employees, can we go into this new line of business? Theres significant variability among them though. Trump wasnt Tom TO Fitchs first choice in the 2016 primaryhe voted for Sen. Ted Cruz. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Supreme Court nominees also matter a lot to Myers in this election. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. Hes probably the best candidate out there for whats going on in our country right now, Martin said. Even if the mean likelihood of a match between county and presidential outcome is exactly 50 percent, in the classic argument offered by Deutsch and Madow in 1961, on the appearance of wisdom in large organizations, some counties will, by chance alone, have high records of predictive success and some may even have perfect records, especially if there are many counties and if we limit the number of elections over which we are requiring successful predictions. The United States needs to get back to where were responsible, energy independent, and get away from the thought process of these liberal socialists in office., Government is out of control, he added. Review: At Fall for Dance, Resilience Takes Center Stage That is a very good thing to have. I dont think you should take that away from me.. Since he became a Christian in the mid-1990s, he said hes used his moral compass to determine his vote. We need to make sure we keep our gun rights.. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck and neck. I feel that if Trump is president again, that will cease. She sees the economy, trade, China, and the Middle East peace deal as top issues. Tammy, who didnt want to provide her last name, told The Epoch Times that during the summer leading up to the 2020 presidential election, the area had a regatta on Lake Erie in Marblehead in support of Donald Trump. Theres significant variability among them, though. With the price of gas going up, Zulch is afraid of a return to high fuel prices caused by Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana 16 years ago and that soaring costs will again hurt his business. Teresa Shepherd, a middle-aged woman living in Riley, just southeast of Terre Haute, has never cared much about voting. Biden Won Despite Losing Most Bellwether Counties Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. In West Terre Haute, across the Wabash River from Terre Haute, Bobby Tisdell, a 38-year-old forklift driver, plans to cast his first vote on Election Day. Tisdell wanted to find out for himself, so he began to do his own research, reading mainstream news on both sides, as well as reports by independent citizen journalists. We and the rest of the states boards of elections have been directed by the Ohio Secretary of States Office to hold the election on May 3. In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. He won nineteen-to-twenty bellwether counties. They've been dubbed "bellwether counties" and until this year,. MORE PROOF OF FRAUD: 16 of 17 Bellwether Counties Went for Trump HAS He received his bachelors degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Toledo and a Masters degree in electrical engineering from Northwestern in Illinois. That was a blow to the area, Miller said about Peloton ending its plans for a $400 million project. Myers works as an electrician and long supported the Democratic Party along with his union. Haotian Chen is a Ph.D. student in political science at the University of California, Irvine. We need to be safe, and I dont think we are right now.. Carol Jacobs and her husband were lifelong Democrats until 2016.